Cosradar beauty category indices · 2026 Q3

Name: Cosradar beauty category indices 2026 Q3
Creator: Cosradar

Two indices: the Compliance Risk Index (CRI) — how often a category is recalled, noticed or facing deadlines; and the Supply Saturation Index (SSI) — how crowded B2B supply is relative to demand. Formulas are public; cite as Cosradar with the date.

Compliance Risk Index (CRI)

CRI = 3 × EU recalls (12 months) + 2 × Prop 65 notices (24 months) + 5 × related upcoming regulatory deadlines, scaled to 0–100 against the highest category. Categories are matched from the public product-name glossary.

Category	CRI	EU recalls	Prop 65	Deadlines
Perfume (EDP, EDT, solid perfume, discovery sets)	100	256	2	0
Body care (lotion, butter, scrub, hand cream)	20	35	25	0
Eye makeup (mascara, eyeliner, eyeshadow, brows)	19	9	58	0
Shampoo (incl. anti-dandruff, bars, dry shampoo)	12	19	19	0
Hair treatment & scalp care	8	18	2	0
Base makeup (foundation, cushion, concealer, setting)	3	0	11	0
Face cleansers	2	0	6	0
Lip makeup (lipstick, liquid lipstick, lip oil)	2	3	2	0
Cartons, boxes & compacts	1	0	0	1
Body & hair mists	1	2	0	0
Sunscreen for oily skin	0	1	0	0
Cheek makeup (blush, bronzer, contour, highlighter)	0	0	1	0

Supply Saturation Index (SSI)

SSI = Alibaba.com listings ÷ US monthly searches, as a percentile across categories (0 = scarcest, 100 = most saturated). Supply refreshes every four weeks; categories with fewer than 100 listings are excluded. Order of magnitude only.

Category	SSI	US searches	Alibaba listings	Read
Airless bottles & jars	100	480	29,700	Saturated
Dropper & serum bottles	97	2,400	81,900	Saturated
Cartons, boxes & compacts	95	6,600	189,000	Saturated
PCR, mono-material & sustainable packaging	92	140	2,980	Saturated
Pump & spray bottles	90	1,900	40,200	Saturated
Glass bottles	87	2,400	50,200	Saturated
Cosmetic tubes	85	1,600	33,400	Saturated
Gift & rigid boxes	82	2,400	25,800	Saturated
Lipstick & lip balm packaging	79	2,400	16,800	Saturated
Cosmetic jars	77	6,600	36,600	Saturated
Mist & spray bottles	74	6,600	26,600	Saturated
Lip makeup (lipstick, liquid lipstick, lip oil)	72	90,500	348,000	Saturated
Shampoo (incl. anti-dandruff, bars, dry shampoo)	69	165,000	556,000	Saturated
Sheet, hydrogel & bio-cellulose masks	67	9,900	28,700	Saturated
Perfume (EDP, EDT, solid perfume, discovery sets)	64	301,000	768,000	Middle
Skincare serum capsules	62	480	1,190	Middle
Oil-control film	59	110	218	Middle
Disposable face towels	56	1,900	3,640	Middle
Refill & refillable packaging	54	8,100	15,300	Middle
Body care (lotion, butter, scrub, hand cream)	51	74,000	121,000	Middle
Base makeup (foundation, cushion, concealer, setting)	49	74,000	117,000	Middle
Eye makeup (mascara, eyeliner, eyeshadow, brows)	46	135,000	129,000	Middle
Body & hair mists	44	27,100	25,500	Middle
Microneedle eye patches	41	1,300	754	Middle
Toner & treatment pads	38	8,100	4,160	Middle
Hair treatment & scalp care	36	74,000	35,200	Middle
Oil blotting paper	33	14,800	4,010	Scarce
Facial & makeup-remover wipes	31	12,100	3,000	Scarce
Under-eye patches	28	40,500	6,400	Scarce
Cheek makeup (blush, bronzer, contour, highlighter)	26	40,500	5,540	Scarce
Mouthwash & toothpaste tablets	23	5,400	477	Scarce
Hydrocolloid pimple patches	21	165,000	12,100	Scarce
Acne & oil-control serums	18	74,000	5,260	Scarce
Pore / nose strips	15	9,900	549	Scarce
Hydrocolloid rolls & sheets	13	18,100	791	Scarce
Compacts	10	14,800	550	Scarce
Microneedle / microdart patches	8	4,400	118	Scarce
Travel-size minis	5	18,100	297	Scarce
Hypochlorous acid sprays	3	110,000	413	Scarce

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